# Bitcoin Holds Steady at $100,000 Amid Fed’s Hawkish Pause

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a prolonged consolidation phase at around $100,000, as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause stance dampens market momentum. During the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed maintained its current interest rate levels and indicated through its dot plot and economic projections that it is not in a hurry to lower rates. This uncertainty raises the question of whether Bitcoin can forge its own momentum in such an environment.

Historically, Bitcoin prices have tended to move inversely with interest rates. Low interest rates typically boost risk assets, while high rates squeeze market liquidity. From 2020 to 2021, amid a zero-interest-rate environment and quantitative easing, Bitcoin surged from below $10,000 to $69,000. Conversely, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes starting in 2022 pulled Bitcoin down to $15,000.

However, Bitcoin’s correlation with interest rates is not absolute. In times of geopolitical tension or crises, such as Middle Eastern conflicts or banking failures, Bitcoin has acted more like a safe-haven asset. Positive developments specific to cryptocurrencies, like the potential approval of a spot ETF in early 2024, can also overshadow interest rate effects. Markets now react more to expectations and narratives than to the Fed’s actual policies, with a sharper focus on the reasons behind potential rate cuts rather than the cuts themselves.

# The Fed’s Hawkish Pause Increases Market Pressure

The June 2025 FOMC meeting highlighted the Fed’s dilemma. Economic growth and employment are slowing, yet inflation remains elevated. The number of committee members expecting rate cuts has decreased, and voices favoring a rate freeze have strengthened. This suggests that the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy might persist, keeping Bitcoin in a long-term sideways trend near $100,000. Factors like deleveraging in the derivatives market and continued ETF fund inflows are helping support this level.

Technical indicators and market sentiment suggest potential for short-term price corrections. Yet, institutional demand, particularly through ETFs, is underpinning prices, hinting at the formation of higher floors compared to past peaks. Although open interest in derivatives is declining, net inflows into spot ETFs continue, signifying sustained real demand over speculative.

On-chain data analysis reveals accumulation patterns among long-term investors. The proportion of wallets with extended holding periods is rising, and exchange balances are consistently decreasing. This indicates that market participants are adopting long-term holding strategies in anticipation of future price increases. Analysts note a shift from short-term speculation to long-term conviction in market dynamics.

# Bitcoin as an Asset of Structural Conviction

In recent years, Bitcoin’s returns have outperformed those of stocks, gold, and real estate. Especially post-halving, its 12- to 18-month performance has distinguished it from other asset classes. This suggests that long-term investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a strategic and safe asset. Its scarcity, combined with network effects and mainstream adoption, strengthens its long-term demand base.

Investors must now consider both macroeconomic trends and the internal fundamentals of Bitcoin, moving beyond simple interest rate correlations. Long-term holders should focus on Bitcoin’s inherent advantages like scarcity and regulatory acceptance, whereas short-term traders should remain agile, observing Fed timelines and geopolitical risks. The market remains highly susceptible to the Fed’s moves.

Analysts advocate a “dual-cycle” strategy, aligning the Fed’s monetary policy cycle (approximately a five-year span) with Bitcoin’s halving cycle (around a four-year span). When both cycles simultaneously enter bullish phases, a strong upward trend is likely. Currently, despite being post-halving, the Fed’s ongoing tightening stance contributes to volatility, yet also presents medium- to long-term accumulation opportunities.

Confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects is increasingly rooted in institutional and structural bases. As of 2025, central banks worldwide are accelerating the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which positions Bitcoin in a competitive landscape against centralized digital assets. In this context, Bitcoin is cementing its status as an asset symbolizing political independence and transparency, differentiating itself fundamentally from fiat currencies.